FROST ALERT - it has been frosty for 6 hrs, 42 mins (since 8:21pm - 27/01/2022)

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 Space Weather / Aurora Hunting - Fri, 28 Jan 2022 03:03:38 +0000 UTC

Sunrise Aurora Oval The Moon
Sun Sun Sun
in 5 hours, 4 minutes
22% Illuminated
13 mins ago
    1       ?       ?   
Kp Now: 1 N/A N/A

   Solar Wind: 516.0 km/s
24hr Max: 543.3 km/s
24hr Min: 426.8 km/s
Proton Density: 6.82 p/cc
Bz: 2.77 nT
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 Predicted Kp Levels Predicted Storm Probability Predicted Flare Probability
  Mon Tue Wed
  Mon Tue Wed
Minor Storm10%5%1%
Major Storm1%1%1%
  Mon Tue Wed
M Class1%1%1%
X Class1%1%1%

What does this data mean?

The Sun

The images of the sun are downloaded from the Solar Dynamics Observatory they show how the sun looks when viewed through different wavelengths of light.
This is useful because it helps us to pinpoint where there is a lot of energy being released (sunspots).
Sunspots aid our chances of seeing the Northern Lights because they can often result in Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections

The Aurora Oval

The Aurora Oval is the latest data from the NOAA Ovation Forecast model.
The Yellow/Orange/Red ring in the image shows where the visible aurora is likely to be seen at this moment.
When there is a disturbance in the geomagnetic field surrounding the earth the aurora oval stretches down toward the equator.

The Kp Level

The Kp Index indicates how disturbed the geomagnetic field surrounding the earth is.
We can use the Kp level to determine what the likely chances of seeing the northern lights are.
In the Scottish Borders we are looking for at least a level of Kp5 to start seeing the northern lights.

The Forecast Kp Level

The forecast for solar activity is downloaded periodically from the Space Weather Prediction Center.
Like a weather model, the SWPC use a variety of data fed into the Costello Model to predict the likely Kp level.
The forecast may sometimes be out of date because sometimes the model is run with limited data and we therefore ignore it's prediction.